COVID-19 in India with lower Death Rate - M.A.Aleem BMJ 2020;369:m2294

BMJ

British Medical Journal 

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Covid-19: Risk of second wave is very real, say researchers

BMJ 2020; 369 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m2294 (Published 09 June 2020)

Cite this as: BMJ 2020;369:m2294

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Re: Covid-19: Risk of second wave is very real, say researchers

Dear Editor

COVID-19 in India with lower Death Rate .

As of now today on 12.6.2020 in India, COVID-19 cases surpasses 3 lakh (307049)

At present about 0.02% (307039)of population is affected by COVID-19 infection in India.

The lockdown and the containment measures helped to keep the virus in check at India

India's Covid-19 recovery rate showed an improvement amid the novel coronavirus cases rising in the country.

In India if you look at cases per million, it is at just 151 cases per

million as compared to over 5,000 cases per million for the US and Spain.

If we look at death per million population, India has recorded four deaths per million only.

The number of patients recovered presently exceeds the number of active patients in India.

As of 11.6.2020 in the global list of a single day COVID-19 case report , Brazil has recorded the maximum 30465 cases . Next to it is USA, which has reported 23300 cases and India is in the 3rd place with 11123 cases . This is the highest number of cases so far recorded in a single day for the first time in India during this Pandemic.

Now India is in 4th place with reported 298283 COVID-19 cases next to USA (First), Brazil (second), and Russia (Third) in the global list as of on 11.6.2020

It is projected that India to hit a peak of 1.92 lakh active COVID-19 cases on June 18.

Another, more dire, projection, based on the SEIR model, puts the peak at 2.78 lakh active cases on the same date in India .

Yet another projection says that the projected total deaths in India may be about 136148 around October 1st.

Competing interests: No competing interests

12 June 2020

M.A. Aleem

Emeritus Professor of Neurology * Visiting Specialist in Neurology ** Consultant Neurologist ***

The Tamilnadu Dr.M.G.R. Medical University * Dhanalakshami Srinivasan Medical College ** ABC Hospital ***

Chennai 600032* Perambalure 621212** Trichy 620018*** Tamilnadu India

@drmaaleem